Wednesday Marin Market Update — September 2, 2026

Daily briefing from Michael DiVita, DiVita Home Finance — Tiburon, CA. DRE #01372066 | NMLS #241655. In California mortgage lending since 2000. Call (800) 239-1103.

Markets at the Close

Wednesday’s session was a tentative recovery after two consecutive losing days. The Dow gained 0.37%, the S&P 500 edged up 0.06%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.06% — a split result that reflects a market still digesting the implications of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole comments. There was no conviction on either side today. Volume was light and the moves weren’t sustained with any real breadth.

Bonds and Mortgage Rates

The bond market is the story this week. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.79% today after reaching 4.81% yesterday — the highest level since October 2023. The 30-year Treasury pushed to 5.29%. The 2-year held near 4.40%.

What this means for mortgages: rates have not dropped from last week. The 30-year fixed is hovering in the 6.875–7.00% range depending on credit profile, lender, and loan type. The 15-year fixed is around 6.25%. Seven-year ARMs are in the 6.50–6.75% range. These are not friendly numbers for affordability, and they’re likely to stay elevated — or move higher — if the Fed hikes later this month.

Markets are now pricing in approximately a 66% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, following Warsh’s hawkish tone at Jackson Hole. Fed funds futures shifted materially this week. A hike won’t directly move fixed mortgage rates (which track the 10-year Treasury, not the Fed funds rate) but it will signal that the Fed isn’t done — and that tends to keep the 10-year elevated.

What Warsh Said at Jackson Hole

Fed Chair Warsh reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to returning inflation to the 2% target, suggesting that policy would remain restrictive until the data clearly showed sustained progress. He offered no hint of a pivot. The market reaction — yields moving up, equities softening — tells you what traders took away from it: rates higher for longer, at least through the end of 2026.

For anyone waiting for a refi window or hoping rates fall into the mid-6s before buying, that scenario looks less likely heading into fall. The path back to 6.50% would require either a significant deterioration in economic data or a clear, sustained drop in inflation readings over the next two months.

Marin County Real Estate

The Marin market continues to hold. The average home value across the county is $1,495,814, up 3.8% year-over-year as of late July — a solid appreciation rate given the rate environment. The median sale price is tracking near $1.4 million. Homes that are correctly priced and well-presented are still going to pending in around 18 days. That’s not a slow market.

Inventory is meaningfully higher than the 2024 and early 2025 levels — up 20–45% year-over-year depending on price tier and city — but it’s not translating into price drops. What it’s translating into is more choices for buyers and slightly less desperation in offer situations. Multiple-offer wars still happen regularly in Tiburon, Belvedere, Ross, and well-priced pockets of Corte Madera and Larkspur. The $1.2M–$1.8M range is the most active; above $3M is slower and more negotiable.

The rate environment is keeping some move-up buyers locked in place — sellers with 3% mortgages from 2020–2022 who don’t want to trade into 7%. That dynamic suppresses supply in the middle of the market, which is part of why prices remain supported even as activity has moderated from the 2021–2022 pace.

What I’m Seeing with Clients

The buyers I’m working with right now fall into a few camps. Those with significant down payments (30–40%) are less rate-sensitive and moving forward — the monthly payment math works for them even at 7%. First-time buyers are getting creative: lower price points, FHA, ARM strategies for properties they plan to hold 5–7 years. And I’m seeing real interest in the 10/1 ARM as a “buy now, refi when rates drop” strategy — which can be smart if your timeline is right and you understand the risk.

If you have a specific purchase in mind and want to run the numbers at today’s rates, call me directly. I’ll pull current wholesale pricing across 40+ lenders and show you what the real payment looks like at each structure.

🗺️ Marin City-by-City Snapshot

• Tiburon — Waterfront and view homes still command their premium in the $3M–$5M+ range, but off-water listings are negotiating for the first time in years.
• Belvedere — Thin as always; a handful of listings, mostly jumbo, and buyers here are far less rate-sensitive than the rest of the county.
• Mill Valley — The busiest submarket in Marin right now, with a median around $2.55 million and more genuine choice than buyers have had in a long time.
• Sausalito — Condos and houseboats sit longer than hillside single-family; financing for floating homes stays specialty, so line up your lender before you write.
• Corte Madera — Steady and family-driven; well-priced homes near the schools still move quickly.
• Larkspur — Downtown and Greenbrae-adjacent inventory has loosened modestly, with more room to negotiate on the older housing stock.
• Kentfield — School-district demand keeps a firm floor under prices even as days on market stretch out.
• Greenbrae — One of the better value plays in central Marin right now if you can be flexible on updates.
• San Rafael — The county’s volume leader at roughly $1.2M–$1.8M, and expanded inventory is creating real openings for move-up buyers.
• San Anselmo — Charming older homes; budget for inspections and expect sellers to entertain repair credits.
• Fairfax — Most affordable entry point in central Marin, and the first-time buyer pool here is the most rate-sensitive in the county.
• Ross — Very few listings, very high price points, and almost every deal is a jumbo or portfolio conversation.
• Novato — The most inventory in the county and the most negotiating room; strong candidate for a seller-paid rate buydown.
• Marinwood / Terra Linda — Mid-century inventory with solid value per square foot; renovation financing fits well here.
• Strawberry — Condo and townhome supply where HOA review can make or break the loan, so check it early.
• Stinson Beach / Bolinas — Coastal fire-zone properties where insurance drives the deal; specialty lending required, and get an insurance quote before you go into contract.
• Point Reyes / Inverness / Nicasio — Rural west Marin with acreage, wells, and septic in play; specialty loans, not standard conforming, and slower to structure.

💡 What Should Marin Buyers Do Right Now?

• Lock if you’re in contract. With hike odds near two-thirds and CPI landing September 11, the risk between now and the FOMC meeting skews higher, not lower. Floating into that is a gamble, not a strategy.
• Ask for a seller-paid buydown instead of a price cut. At 3.2 months of inventory, sellers are listening — and a seller-funded 2-1 buydown usually improves your payment more than an equivalent price reduction, for the same money out of their pocket.
• Use the leverage on inspections and credits. Seven weeks on market means you can write a normal offer with normal contingencies. That wasn’t true in Marin two years ago.
• Get pre-approved before you tour, especially west of the ridge. Fire-zone, acreage, and floating-home properties need lenders who actually do those loans. Learning that after you’re in contract costs you the house.

📞 Talk to Michael Directly

We’re a small family-owned brokerage in Tiburon. No call center, no phone tree, no getting handed off to whoever picked up. You call, I answer, and I’ll tell you straight whether the numbers work.

Call: (800) 239-1103
Cell: (310) 849-9124

Michael G. DiVita, Broker of Record | CA DRE #01372066 | NMLS #241655
DiVita Home Finance, Inc. | CA DRE #01818285 | NMLS #323700

Rates and market data reflect national averages published on September 4, 2026, and are for informational purposes only. They are not a commitment to lend or a quote. Your actual rate depends on credit, loan amount, property type, occupancy, and other factors.