Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Here’s everything moving in the markets today and what it means if you’re buying or selling in Marin County.
Mortgage Rates Today
The 30-year fixed is running 6.56%–6.72% this morning depending on your lender, loan size, and credit profile. The 15-year fixed ticked up 7 basis points to 5.95%. Refinance rates are higher — 30-year refis are averaging around 7.15%, which is why refi activity is muted right now. The 5/1 ARM dropped to 6.62%, but that’s so close to the 30-year fixed that most buyers aren’t bothering — you’d be taking rate risk for almost no savings.
For a $1.3 million purchase in Marin at 6.65% with 20% down ($260,000), your principal and interest payment is about $6,679/month. Add property taxes (~$1,083/month on a $1.3M home) and homeowner’s insurance (~$300/month), and all-in you’re looking at approximately $8,062/month. That’s what buying in Marin actually costs right now.
The Bond Market — What’s Driving Rates
Mortgage rates move with the 10-year Treasury yield, and the 10-year is at 4.66% today — down 4 basis points from yesterday, but still dangerously close to its 20-month high of 4.75% hit last session. That high is what pushed mortgage rates into the upper 6s recently.
Two things are keeping yields elevated. First, persistent concerns about the federal deficit — when the government borrows more, it issues more bonds, which increases supply and puts upward pressure on yields. Second, heavy corporate bond issuance this week. Companies rushing to lock in debt before rates potentially move higher means more bonds competing for the same pool of buyers. More supply = lower prices = higher yields.
The bright spot: The US Treasury announced it’s doubling its liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated bonds. This is meaningful. When Treasury buys back its own bonds, it creates artificial demand, pushing bond prices up and yields down. If this program gains traction, you could see the 10-year drift back toward 4.4%–4.5%, which would pull 30-year mortgage rates closer to 6.2%–6.4%. That’s not guaranteed, and it won’t happen overnight — but it’s the most credible near-term catalyst for lower mortgage rates we’ve seen in months.
Equities — Why a Strong Stock Market Hurts Mortgage Rates
The Dow is up today. The S&P 500 hit record highs earlier this month. UBS is projecting 25% earnings-per-share growth for S&P 500 companies this year, and AI-driven productivity gains are showing up in corporate results. By most measures, the stock market is thriving.
Here’s the problem for mortgage borrowers: when stocks rally, institutional money flows out of bonds and into equities. Less demand for bonds means bond prices fall and yields rise. This is why you rarely see a booming stock market and falling mortgage rates at the same time. Right now, equities are winning the tug of war, and bond yields are staying stubbornly high as a result.
Nvidia earnings later this week add another variable. If Nvidia crushes expectations — which it has done repeatedly — expect another tech rally that pulls money further from bonds and keeps yields elevated.
Jackson Hole Friday — The Event That Could Change Everything
The most important thing happening in financial markets this week isn’t happening until Friday. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first major policy address at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming. Markets are hanging on every word.
Warsh is a former Fed governor and known as more hawkish than his predecessor. If he signals that rate cuts are off the table until inflation is convincingly at 2% — or that the Fed will hold rates higher for longer — expect bond yields to spike and mortgage rates to follow. If he surprises by opening the door to cuts sooner than expected, you could see the 10-year drop 10–20 basis points by end of day Friday, which would translate to roughly 0.1%–0.2% lower mortgage rates within days.
If you’re in the middle of a purchase right now and haven’t locked your rate, this is the decision in front of you: lock before Friday and accept today’s rate, or float and hope Warsh is dovish. The risk isn’t symmetric — a hawkish speech could push rates up 0.25% or more. A dovish speech might save you 0.125%–0.2%. For most buyers, locking before Friday is the smarter move.
Marin County Market This Week
Locally, not much has changed. Median list price is holding around $1,299,000. Homes are taking roughly two months to sell on average — longer than the 3–5 weeks we saw during spring’s competitive stretch. That’s not a collapse; it’s normalization. Sellers who priced optimistically in April and didn’t get offers are repricing now, and some of those price reductions are creating real opportunities.
Inventory is still the fundamental issue. A large percentage of Marin homeowners refinanced at 3%–4% between 2020 and 2022 and have no financial incentive to sell into a 6.7% market. That rate-lock effect keeps supply constrained, which is why even in a slower-feeling market, well-priced homes in good condition still move quickly.
Late August is historically one of the better times to buy in Marin. The spring frenzy is over, serious sellers are motivated, and the buyers still active now aren’t the casual lookers who show up in March. September typically brings a fresh wave of listings from sellers who missed spring and don’t want to wait until 2027. If you’ve been watching the market and waiting for more choices, the next 4–6 weeks should deliver them.
What to Do This Week
If you’re under contract: Talk to your loan officer today about locking before Friday’s Jackson Hole speech. Don’t let the rate decision slide into the weekend.
If you’re pre-approved and actively looking: Keep going. The buyers who stay in it through August and September often close on better deals than those who waited for spring and competed against 8 other offers.
If you haven’t started yet: Get pre-approved now so you’re ready when September listings hit. A pre-approval takes less than 24 hours and costs nothing. Sellers in Marin won’t look twice at an offer without one.
Call us at (800) 239-1108 or apply online. We’ll get you pre-approved and walk you through the rate-lock decision before Friday.
Sources: Trading Economics (10-year Treasury yield 4.66%), The Street (Jackson Hole / Warsh), Yahoo Finance (equity markets), NerdWallet / Fortune / Norada (mortgage rates), Zillow (Marin median list price $1,299,000) — August 25, 2026.
