Good morning, Marin. Thursday brings a complex picture: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s surprise bond buyback program pushed the 10-year yield down to 4.65% overnight, but oil is surging on President Trump’s “Economic D-Day” threats against Iran, and Bitcoin just crossed $70,000. Markets are digesting a lot. Here’s what it means for your mortgage.
📈 Market Close — Wednesday, August 19, 2026
| Index | Close | Change |
| S&P 500 | 5,741 | ▲ 0.5% |
| Dow Jones | 42,318 | ▲ 0.4% |
| 10-Year Treasury | 4.61% | ▼ from 4.72% |
| 30-Year Fixed (avg.) | 6.45%–6.60% | ▼ from prior week |
| Crude Oil (Thu. a.m.) | $86.33 | ▲ 2.3% |
🏦 Thursday Morning: Oil, Iran, and Bond Market Tug-of-War
Wednesday’s relief rally is facing headwinds this morning. Here’s what’s moving:
- Oil up 2.3% to $86.33/barrel — Trump’s “Economic D-Day” threat against Iran rattled energy markets. Higher oil = higher inflation risk = upward pressure on rates.
- 10-Year Treasury at 4.65% — Bessent’s bond buyback knocked the 10-year down from Wednesday’s high. Mortgage rates this morning are in the 6.50%–6.70% range.
- National debt hits $40 trillion — More than doubled in under a decade. Long-term inflationary pressure. Bessent is managing it for now.
- Walmart earnings today — A bellwether for consumer health. Strong results signal economic resilience.
📊 Inflation & The Fed
The Fed is on hold, but September is live. Three Fed presidents dissented at the last meeting in favor of a hike — and oil pushing toward $90 doesn’t help the case for easing. Market pricing: roughly 55% odds of a hold, 45% for a hike. If you’re floating a rate, that’s not a gamble worth taking.
🏡 Marin County Real Estate Market
475 active listings county-wide. Median list price $1.299M. Average 73 days on market. Price appreciation has cooled from 11% year-over-year in June to just 3% in July. The market is now property-specific: well-priced, move-in-ready homes still attract offers. Everything else is sitting and becoming negotiable.
🗺️ Marin City-by-City Snapshot
Tiburon: Steady demand — buyers here are largely insulated from rate sensitivity at this price point.
Belvedere: Ultra-tight inventory; anything priced right moves regardless of the rate environment.
Mill Valley: Rate-sensitive buyers in the $1.5M–$2M range watching this week’s data before committing.
Sausalito: Quiet — a few motivated sellers beginning to negotiate on price.
Corte Madera: Steady; good inventory for buyers who want suburban space.
Larkspur: Charming and inventory-constrained — well-priced homes still get attention.
Kentfield: Larger lots drawing families; longer days on market giving buyers more leverage.
Greenbrae: Downsizer demand holding; condo market softening slightly.
San Rafael: Most active market by volume — realistic pricing is what’s moving homes.
San Anselmo: Strong lifestyle appeal; days on market creeping up but demand is real.
Fairfax: First-time buyer activity picking up at these price points.
Ross: Premium and exclusive — limited turnover, real buyer interest when something hits the market.
Novato: Best value in Marin — buyers getting more for their money here than anywhere else in the county.
Marinwood / Terra Linda: Steady family demand; solid inventory relative to south county.
Strawberry: Limited inventory keeps values supported.
Stinson Beach / Bolinas: Fire-zone — specialty lending required; insurance remains the biggest barrier for buyers.
Point Reyes / Inverness / Nicasio: Rural west Marin — portfolio and specialty lending often needed.
💡 What Should Marin Buyers Do Right Now?
- Lock before the Fed meeting. September is a coin flip — if they hike, rates push toward 7%. The asymmetry favors locking now.
- Watch oil. Iran tensions pushing crude toward $90 is an inflation signal. Not the week to float if you have a closing date.
- Use 73 days on market as leverage. Sellers are more flexible on concessions right now — including seller-funded rate buydowns. Ask for one.
- Jumbo buyers: we now offer a 3/2/1 jumbo buydown that most lenders won’t do. On a $1.5M loan at 6.875%, year-one payment drops to $7,054 — saving $2,800/month.
📞 Talk to Michael Directly
A lot is moving this week — oil, bonds, Fed uncertainty. I cut through the noise and tell you exactly what it means for your loan. No call centers, no runaround.
Call: (800) 239-1103 | Cell: (310) 849-9124
Michael G. DiVita, Broker of Record | CA DRE #01372066 | NMLS #241655
DiVita Home Finance, Inc. | CA DRE #01818285 | NMLS #323700
