Marin County Mortgage & Market Update — Thursday, August 13, 2026

📈 Market Close — Thursday, August 13, 2026

Another solid day for equities. Markets are threading the needle nicely—enough economic optimism to keep stocks moving higher, but cooler inflation data taking some pressure off rates. Here’s what we saw at the bell:

Small caps outperforming—that’s usually a sign of confidence down the risk curve. The S&P 500 continuing to mark new all-time highs, which is solid fundamentally even if it makes timing market moves feel a bit like throwing darts.

🏦 Bond Yields & Mortgage Rates

This is where it gets relevant for homebuyers. Treasury yields are still sticky, but they’re not running away from us. The 10-year is holding around 4.69%, and mortgage rates have stabilized in a range that’s manageable if you’re serious about buying.

Mortgage rates are where they’ve been for the past few weeks. Not cheap by historical standards, but manageable. The key takeaway: if you’re waiting for rates to drop another 50 basis points before acting, you might be waiting a long time. Right now, focus on finding the right property at the right price in your neighborhood—rates are secondary to that.

📊 Inflation & The Fed

Here’s the narrative that’s actually moving markets: inflation is cooling, and the Fed knows it.

July’s CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year, down from prior months. Month-over-month, prices rose just 0.1%—that’s flat, basically. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) sits at 2.5% annually, creeping closer to the Fed’s 2% target. This is progress, and it’s why markets have been rallying lately.

The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% in late July, but—and this matters—there were three dissents in favor of a hike from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. That’s the most dissent since September 2016. Translation: some folks at the Fed think we’re not done tightening yet, even as the inflation data softens.

For Marin buyers: This means the Fed probably isn’t cutting rates aggressively anytime soon. The September meeting is coming up, and they’ll have August CPI data in hand. My sense is we’re in a holding pattern—rates staying elevated, but not spiking. That’s actually not terrible for someone ready to act, because it means fewer surprises.

🏡 Marin County Real Estate Market

Let’s talk about your market. Marin County inventory is tightening again—we’re sitting at 475 total listings as of early August, down about 13% month-over-month. This matters because fewer homes for sale means less competition, but it also means less choice if you’re the buyer.

The median list price is hovering around $1.299 million, with an average list price of about $2.05 million for residential property. Days on market is averaging 73 days—not fire-sale fast, but reasonable given supply constraints.

Here’s the honest take: Marin isn’t a simple “buyer’s market” or “seller’s market” anymore. It’s highly property-specific. A well-priced, move-in-ready home in Tiburon or Sausalito will generate strong interest fast. An overpriced fixer-upper or a property with insurance or maintenance red flags? That one sits. The market is discerning now, and pricing discipline matters more than ever.

🗺️ Marin City-by-City Snapshot

• Tiburon: Waterfront premium holding; limited inventory keeps prices elevated but steady. Expect 60-80 days on market for quality homes.
• Belvedere: Similar story to Tiburon—tight supply, strong hold. Deeply local market; very little turnover.
• Mill Valley: Steady demand, especially for family homes with good schools. Mid-range pricing relative to coastal Marin; good inventory flow.
• Sausalito: Artsy, walkable, desirable. Premium pricing holds; inventory limited. Buyers willing to move quickly win here.
• Corte Madera: Good entry point for Marin; shopping and freeway access appeal to families and commuters.
• Larkspur: Underrated. Good schools, retail, waterfront access via the Larkspur ferry. Solid value relative to Tiburon.
• Kentfield: Family-friendly, secluded, excellent schools. Premium pricing justified by lifestyle; slower turnover.
• Greenbrae: Quiet, residential, good value relative to neighboring Kentfield. Steady market.
• San Rafael: Marin’s hub; diverse neighborhoods, urban convenience, good inventory flow. Gateway to North Marin from the south.
• San Anselmo: Charming, good walkability, popular with young families. Moderate pricing; steady demand.
• Fairfax: Rural feel, good community vibe. More affordable than coastal Marin; inventory moving steadily.
• Ross: Tiny, exclusive, expensive. Very limited inventory; more of a “if it pops up and you want it, you move fast” market.
• Novato: Largest city in Marin; most affordable entry point; family-oriented with good schools. Solid inventory, steady appreciation.
• Marinwood / Terra Linda: Suburban, family-friendly; affordable relative to central Marin. Good school options; steady demand.
• Strawberry: Small, quiet, limited inventory. Mostly owner-occupied; rarely on market.
• Stinson Beach / Bolinas: Coastal, scenic, specialty lending required (fire zone considerations and insurance). Limited inventory; highly specialized market.
• Point Reyes / Inverness / Nicasio: Rural west Marin; low inventory, long days on market. Rural lending and fire-zone insurance apply. Lifestyle buyers only.

💡 What Should Marin Buyers Do Right Now?

1. Get pre-approved, seriously. With inventory tight, when a good property hits the market, it moves. You need to be pre-approved and ready to move in days, not weeks. Lender delay is not an option.

2. Be realistic about what you can afford. Rates at 6.67% mean your monthly payment is real. Run your own numbers; don’t rely on what an app tells you. If a $1.5M home feels like a stretch at your income level, it probably is.

3. Location and condition still matter most. The market rewards pricing discipline. An overpriced fixer-upper sits; a fairly priced, ready-to-go home sells. If you’re not prepared to buy something move-in ready or accept the costs of renovation, recalibrate your expectations.

4. Don’t wait for rates to drop. The Fed isn’t signaling aggressive cuts, and inflation is moderating, not collapsing. Rates staying at 6.5%–7% for the next 12 months is a reasonable planning assumption. If you want to be in Marin, rates are pricing that in already.

📞 Talk to Michael Directly

If you’re ready to buy in Marin or just want to talk through what’s realistic for your situation, let’s connect. I work one-on-one with clients—no call centers, no runaround, just straightforward advice from someone who’s been financing Marin homes for years.

Call: (800) 239-1103
Cell: (310) 849-9124

Michael G. DiVita
Broker of Record | CA DRE #01372066 | NMLS #241655

DiVita Home Finance, Inc.
CA DRE #01818285 | NMLS #323700

Based in Tiburon, CA. Financing Marin County and the Bay Area.