Marin County Mortgage & Market Update — Tuesday, September 8, 2026

Good morning from Tiburon. Short week after Labor Day, and it came back loud — oil pushing toward $100, fresh Middle East headlines, and Canada’s retaliatory tariffs kicking in today. Mortgage rates actually improved slightly, which is not what you’d expect on a day like this. Here’s the rundown.

📈 Market Close — September 8, 2026

The Dow took the worst of it, down over 600 points. Industrials and anything tariff-exposed got hit as Canada’s Department of Finance matched U.S. tariffs “dollar for dollar, rate for rate” — 15%, 25% and 50% rates on roughly $27.6 billion of American imports, effective today. Meanwhile Brent crude jumped about 2.3% to just over $99 a barrel after Houthi strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure.

Oil at $99 is the part that matters for your mortgage. Energy feeds straight into inflation expectations, and inflation expectations are what set long-term rates.

🏦 Bond Yields & Mortgage Rates

The 10-year held roughly flat at 4.79%, but it’s been flirting with 4.8% for a week now, and there’s a real conversation happening about fiscal supply pushing it higher from here. That’s the ceiling problem: as long as the 10-year sits near 4.8%, the 30-year fixed isn’t getting meaningfully under 6.5% on its own.

The good news for anyone shopping this week — rates came down a touch to start the shortened week, and the 15-year dropped about 10 basis points. If you’ve got a file sitting at 6.875% waiting for something better, this is a reasonable window to look at.

One thing I’ll keep saying: the spread between the 10-year and the 30-year fixed is still wider than historical normal. That spread is where a good broker earns their keep. Same borrower, same credit, same property — I regularly see quotes 25 to 40 basis points apart between wholesale lenders on any given morning. On a $1.5 million Marin loan, that’s real money.

📊 Inflation & The Fed

Latest CPI, for July, came in at 3.4% year over year with core at 2.5%. The August print lands Friday, September 11, and given what oil has done, nobody’s expecting a friendly number.

Here’s the headline most people haven’t caught up to yet: the market is no longer debating whether the Fed cuts. It’s debating whether they hike. The FOMC meets September 15–16 with the funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, and futures markets are putting better-than-even odds on a 25 basis point increase. Last Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report pushed that probability up further.

What that means for a Marin buyer, practically: stop waiting. The “rates will be lower in six months” trade has been wrong for most of this year, and the risk is now skewed the other direction. Buy the house that works, structure the loan so you can refinance cheaply if the picture changes, and move on with your life.

🏡 Marin County Real Estate Market

Marin’s median sold price is running about $1.395 million, up roughly 2% year over year, with the broader average home value around $1.50 million (up 3.8%). Prices are holding.

Inventory is the real story. Active listings are around 486, nearly 24% above last year, and months of supply has climbed to about 3.2 — the deepest selection Marin buyers have had since early 2023. Homes are averaging roughly seven weeks on market.

Translation: this is a negotiable market for the first time in a while. Not a buyer’s market — Marin doesn’t really do those — but a market where a well-prepared buyer with a strong pre-approval has actual leverage. Sellers who price correctly still get their number. Sellers who price on 2022 comps are sitting.

🗺️ Marin City-by-City Snapshot

• Tiburon — Waterfront and view properties still command premiums, but jumbo buyers are negotiating on anything that’s been listed 45+ days.
• Belvedere — Thin as always; a handful of listings, mostly super-jumbo, mostly all-cash or heavily-down financing.
• Mill Valley — The busiest submarket in the county right now, and the one where added inventory is most visible.
• Sausalito — Houseboat and condo financing needs a lender who actually understands the collateral; I do these regularly.
• Corte Madera — Solid mid-market activity; entry-level Marin buyers are finding the most realistic pricing here.
• Larkspur — Steady. Ferry-adjacent properties continue to move fastest.
• Kentfield — School-district demand keeps a floor under prices even as days-on-market stretch.
• Greenbrae — Quiet and consistent; good value relative to neighboring Kentfield.
• San Rafael — Widest price range in Marin and the most inventory; plenty of room to negotiate.
• San Anselmo — Charming inventory, older housing stock — budget for appraisal condition items.
• Fairfax — Most affordable entry point in central Marin; still moving reasonably quickly.
• Ross — Very few transactions, very high price points; strictly super-jumbo territory.
• Novato — The county’s volume market, and where conforming and high-balance loan limits actually apply.
• Marinwood / Terra Linda — Reliable mid-market demand; a lot of first-move-up buyers.
• Strawberry — Small, tightly held, and priced off Tiburon comps more than Mill Valley ones.
• Stinson Beach / Bolinas — High fire-severity zone. Insurance is the deal-killer here more often than the rate; specialty lending and early insurance quotes are mandatory.
• Point Reyes / Inverness / Nicasio — Rural west Marin, acreage, wells and septic. Needs a portfolio or specialty lender — conventional guidelines usually don’t fit.

💡 What Should Marin Buyers Do Right Now?

1. Lock, don’t float — at least through next Wednesday. With CPI on Friday and an FOMC meeting where a hike is a live possibility on the 16th, floating an unlocked rate through the next ten days is a gamble with poor odds.
2. Use the inventory. 486 active listings and 3.2 months of supply means you can ask for a rate buydown, closing cost credits, or repairs. A year ago you couldn’t. Seller-paid buydowns are the single most underused tool in Marin right now.
3. Get insurance quotes before you write the offer if you’re looking anywhere near Stinson, Bolinas, west Marin, or the wildland edges of Mill Valley and Fairfax. I’ve watched clean deals fall apart at day 15 over an insurance binder.
4. Shop the loan, not just the house. With jumbo pricing this dispersed, the difference between an okay quote and a good one is often larger than anything you’ll negotiate on price.

📞 Talk to Michael Directly

No call center, no queue, no getting handed off to a processor in another state. You call, I answer. We’re a small family-owned brokerage in Tiburon and we’ve been doing Marin loans for a long time.

Call: (800) 239-1103
Cell: (310) 849-9124

Michael G. DiVita, Broker of Record | CA DRE #01372066 | NMLS #241655
DiVita Home Finance, Inc. | CA DRE #01818285 | NMLS #323700

Rates and market data shown are as of September 8, 2026 and are for informational purposes only. Rates change daily and vary by credit profile, loan amount, property type and occupancy. This is not a commitment to lend.