Marin County Mortgage & Market Update — Monday, September 7, 2026

Happy Labor Day, Marin. The stock and bond markets are closed today, so there’s no fresh tape to read — but Friday handed us a jobs report that genuinely moved the needle, and it’s worth unpacking before the week gets going. Short version: the labor market came in hot, yields pushed up, and the odds of a Fed hike in two weeks are back on the table.

Here’s where things stand heading into a short week.

📈 Market Close — Friday, September 4, 2026

All three major indexes finished Friday in the red — not dramatically, but the direction told the story. Stocks sold off because the August employment report was too good, which is one of those quirks of this market cycle that still confuses people. Strong economy, weaker stocks. It makes sense once you follow the rate math.

🏦 Bond Yields & Mortgage Rates

The 10-year Treasury is the number I watch every morning, because 30-year mortgage pricing tracks it more closely than it tracks anything the Fed does directly. At 4.79%, we’re at the upper end of the range we’ve been chopping around in all summer. Mortgage rates are sitting in the high 6s as a result.

One thing worth saying plainly: the rates you see quoted in national headlines are averages built from vanilla scenarios. In Marin, most of my clients are borrowing well past the low-balance conforming limit of $832,750, and often past the $1,249,125 high-balance ceiling into true jumbo territory. Jumbo pricing has its own gravity — sometimes better than conforming, sometimes worse, depending on the week and the lender. A quoted average is a starting point, not your rate.

📊 Inflation & The Fed

Friday’s August jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls up 162,000 against a consensus of roughly 53,000 — the strongest month since March. Unemployment held at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% on the month and 3.1% year over year. After July’s ugly 23,000 print, this was a genuine reversal, and rate futures reacted immediately: implied odds of a September hike jumped from around 50% to as high as 65% before settling back near a coin flip.

On inflation, the most recent CPI reading is July’s: headline prices up 0.1% for the month and 3.4% year over year, with core CPI up 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually. Fed Governor Christopher Waller has said he’d favor holding rates steady as long as monthly inflation keeps moderating — which is exactly why the August CPI release this Friday, September 11 matters so much. It lands just days before the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.

What this means for buyers: expect volatility in mortgage pricing Thursday through the following week. A soft CPI print likely takes a hike off the table and gives rates room to ease. A hot one does the opposite. If you’re floating a rate right now, this is not a week to be casual about it.

🏡 Marin County Real Estate Market

Marin continues to do what Marin does — hold its value while the rest of the Bay Area swings. Current data puts the median sale price around $1.4 million, essentially flat year over year, while Zillow’s broader home-value index for the county sits near $1,495,814, up about 3.8% from a year ago. Price per square foot is running roughly $770, up slightly.

Homes are averaging about 35 days on market, versus 36 a year ago — basically unchanged. Inventory has improved from the historic lows of a couple of years back without tipping into oversupply. That’s the definition of a balanced-ish market: buyers have more to look at than they did in 2023, sellers still get their price when the property is priced right, and the bidding-war frenzy is confined to the genuinely special listings.

🗺️ Marin City-by-City Snapshot

• Tiburon — Waterfront and view properties still command a premium; nearly all financing here is jumbo.
• Belvedere — Tiny inventory, very high price points, and buyers who move quickly when the right home lists.
• Mill Valley — Consistently the most competitive submarket in the county for well-updated homes near town.
• Sausalito — A split market between hillside single-family homes and condos/floating homes, which finance very differently.
• Corte Madera — Steady family-buyer demand; flood-zone parcels need insurance review early in escrow.
• Larkspur — Downtown proximity and ferry access keep demand firm through rate swings.
• Kentfield — School-district demand supports pricing; larger lots push loan amounts into jumbo range.
• Greenbrae — Reliable mid-market activity with a good mix of single-family and townhome inventory.
• San Rafael — The county’s widest price range, and the best place to find homes under the conforming limits.
• San Anselmo — Character homes move well; older construction means appraisal and condition matter more.
• Fairfax — Relative value versus the rest of central Marin, with steady buyer interest.
• Ross — Very low volume, very high price points; essentially an all-jumbo market.
• Novato — The most attainable entry point in Marin and where conforming and FHA financing actually fits.
• Marinwood / Terra Linda — Popular with move-up buyers; mid-century inventory rewards a good renovation loan strategy.
• Strawberry — Small, well-located pocket with a meaningful share of condo and townhome financing.
• Stinson Beach / Bolinas — Coastal and high fire-severity zone. Insurance is the deciding factor here, and financing often requires specialty lending. Start early.
• Point Reyes / Inverness / Nicasio — Rural West Marin, with acreage, septic, well, and outbuilding considerations that most lenders won’t touch. Specialty lending territory.

💡 What Should Marin Buyers Do Right Now?

1. Decide on your float-vs-lock plan before Friday. August CPI drops September 11 and the Fed meets September 15–16. If you’re under contract and floating, know your trigger points now rather than reacting to a headline.
2. Get your pre-approval refreshed if it’s more than 60 days old. With hike odds near a coin flip, your qualifying numbers can shift. Better to find out today than during an offer deadline.
3. Know which loan bucket you’re actually in. Under $832,750, between there and $1,249,125, or true jumbo — those are three different rate sheets and three different underwriting experiences. In Marin, this single question changes your monthly payment more than shopping for a tenth of a point.
4. If you’re looking in a fire or flood zone, line up insurance before you write the offer. In Stinson Beach, Bolinas, and West Marin especially, insurance availability — not the loan — is what kills deals right now.

📞 Talk to Michael Directly

We’re a small, family-owned brokerage based in Tiburon. No call centers, no getting bounced between departments, no 800-number runaround. When you call, you get me — and I’ve been doing Marin loans long enough to know which lenders actually close on a West Marin property with a well and a barn.

If you want a real read on your numbers before the Fed meets in two weeks, reach out today.

Call: (800) 239-1103
Cell: (310) 849-9124

Michael G. DiVita, Broker of Record | CA DRE #01372066 | NMLS #241655
DiVita Home Finance, Inc. | CA DRE #01818285 | NMLS #323700

Rates and market data shown are as of the date of this post and are subject to change without notice. This is not a commitment to lend or an offer of credit. Equal Housing Opportunity.