Marin County Mortgage & Market Update — Friday, September 4, 2026

The August jobs report landed this morning and it was not the soft number anyone was hoping for. The economy added 162,000 jobs against a consensus of about 55,000 — roughly triple the estimate — and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Stocks gave back a piece of yesterday’s rally, yields ticked up, and the odds of a Fed hike on September 16 moved from a coin flip to something closer to likely. Here’s where things stand heading into the weekend.

📈 Market Close — Friday, September 4, 2026

Orderly, not dramatic. All three indexes are still up on the week after Thursday’s strong session. What moved today wasn’t panic — it was investors repricing how long money stays expensive.

🏦 Bond Yields & Mortgage Rates

Survey averages ran from about 6.71% to 6.78% today depending on whose data you look at, so call it 6.73%. The number that actually matters is the quote on your file — credit, loan size, and property type will move you off that average in either direction, sometimes by a quarter point.

Two things worth flagging. The spread between the 10-year and the 30-year fixed is still near 195 basis points, versus a historical 170–180. That cushion is lenders pricing in uncertainty, which means rates have room to improve without the Treasury moving at all. Second, ARMs have quietly lost their edge — when the 5/1 prices above the fixed, the “take the ARM and save” math stops working. I’m steering almost everyone toward fixed right now.

📊 Inflation & The Fed

July CPI, the most recent report, showed headline inflation at 3.4% year over year — a second straight month of cooling from 3.5% — with core at 2.5%. That’s the encouraging half. The discouraging half is what Chair Warsh laid out at Jackson Hole: PCE up 3.7% over 12 months, but running 4.1% over the last six. When the shorter window is hotter than the longer one, inflation is reaccelerating, not fading — and Warsh made clear he intends to do something about it.

Markets got the message. Fed funds futures now put the odds of a quarter-point increase at the September 16 FOMC meeting in the 58%–66% range, up from roughly 49% before this morning’s jobs number. A month ago the debate was about cuts. It isn’t anymore.

Next checkpoint is August CPI on Thursday, September 11 — the last major data point before the Fed meets. A cool print takes heat out of the hike case; a hot one probably locks it in. The practical takeaway for buyers: don’t build your plan around rates being lower in October. Build it around today’s number and treat any improvement as a refinance later.

🏡 Marin County Real Estate Market

This is the part that doesn’t get enough attention, because it’s the best news Marin buyers have had in three years. Countywide median sold price is holding around $1.395 million, up roughly 2% year over year — values are stable, not sliding. But active inventory sits at 486 listings, nearly 24% above a year ago, and months of supply has climbed to 3.2. That’s the deepest selection since early 2023.

Homes are averaging about seven weeks on market. Rate buydowns, closing cost credits, and repair concessions are all back in the conversation — none of which were on the table in 2023 or 2024. Prime view-and-light properties still draw competition and still go over ask. Everything else is negotiable in a way it hasn’t been in a long time. If you stepped back because you were tired of losing to all-cash offers, the field has changed.

🗺️ Marin City-by-City Snapshot

• Tiburon — Waterfront and view homes still command their premium in the $3M–$5M+ range, but off-water listings are negotiating for the first time in years.
• Belvedere — Thin as always; a handful of listings, mostly jumbo, and buyers here are far less rate-sensitive than the rest of the county.
• Mill Valley — The busiest submarket in Marin right now, with a median around $2.55 million and more genuine choice than buyers have had in a long time.
• Sausalito — Condos and houseboats sit longer than hillside single-family; financing for floating homes stays specialty, so line up your lender before you write.
• Corte Madera — Steady and family-driven; well-priced homes near the schools still move quickly.
• Larkspur — Downtown and Greenbrae-adjacent inventory has loosened modestly, with more room to negotiate on the older housing stock.
• Kentfield — School-district demand keeps a firm floor under prices even as days on market stretch out.
• Greenbrae — One of the better value plays in central Marin right now if you can be flexible on updates.
• San Rafael — The county’s volume leader at roughly $1.2M–$1.8M, and expanded inventory is creating real openings for move-up buyers.
• San Anselmo — Charming older homes; budget for inspections and expect sellers to entertain repair credits.
• Fairfax — Most affordable entry point in central Marin, and the first-time buyer pool here is the most rate-sensitive in the county.
• Ross — Very few listings, very high price points, and almost every deal is a jumbo or portfolio conversation.
• Novato — The most inventory in the county and the most negotiating room; strong candidate for a seller-paid rate buydown.
• Marinwood / Terra Linda — Mid-century inventory with solid value per square foot; renovation financing fits well here.
• Strawberry — Condo and townhome supply where HOA review can make or break the loan, so check it early.
• Stinson Beach / Bolinas — Coastal fire-zone properties where insurance drives the deal; specialty lending required, and get an insurance quote before you go into contract.
• Point Reyes / Inverness / Nicasio — Rural west Marin with acreage, wells, and septic in play; specialty loans, not standard conforming, and slower to structure.

💡 What Should Marin Buyers Do Right Now?

• Lock if you’re in contract. With hike odds near two-thirds and CPI landing September 11, the risk between now and the FOMC meeting skews higher, not lower. Floating into that is a gamble, not a strategy.
• Ask for a seller-paid buydown instead of a price cut. At 3.2 months of inventory, sellers are listening — and a seller-funded 2-1 buydown usually improves your payment more than an equivalent price reduction, for the same money out of their pocket.
• Use the leverage on inspections and credits. Seven weeks on market means you can write a normal offer with normal contingencies. That wasn’t true in Marin two years ago.
• Get pre-approved before you tour, especially west of the ridge. Fire-zone, acreage, and floating-home properties need lenders who actually do those loans. Learning that after you’re in contract costs you the house.

📞 Talk to Michael Directly

We’re a small family-owned brokerage in Tiburon. No call center, no phone tree, no getting handed off to whoever picked up. You call, I answer, and I’ll tell you straight whether the numbers work.

Call: (800) 239-1103
Cell: (310) 849-9124

Michael G. DiVita, Broker of Record | CA DRE #01372066 | NMLS #241655
DiVita Home Finance, Inc. | CA DRE #01818285 | NMLS #323700

Rates and market data reflect national averages published on September 4, 2026, and are for informational purposes only. They are not a commitment to lend or a quote. Your actual rate depends on credit, loan amount, property type, occupancy, and other factors.