Marin County Mortgage & Market Update — Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Good morning, Marin. Markets took a small step back on Tuesday, but nothing alarming. The 10-year Treasury is hovering around 4.72%, and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is holding steady in the 6.55%–6.70% range. Let’s dig into what this means for your next move in Marin real estate.

📈 Market Close — Tuesday, August 18, 2026

A quiet Tuesday. All three indices ticked down slightly as investors took a breather ahead of some big earnings reports later this week. Chip stocks led the decline—the usual suspects when bond yields nudge higher. Nothing to lose sleep over, but worth watching this week.

🏦 Bond Yields & Mortgage Rates

The 10-year is stable. We’re watching the Treasury curve closely—if it pops above 4.80% this week, we could see mortgage rates tick up another quarter point. Right now, buyers locking in the mid-6s are doing okay. Refinancing remains a tough math for most folks still carrying 3s and 4s from the pandemic era, so if that’s you, we’re not pushing it.

📊 Inflation & The Fed

The Federal Reserve held rates steady at the July meeting—no surprise there. But here’s the drama: three Fed presidents dissented in favor of a hike, the most dissenters we’ve seen since 2016. Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis), Beth Hammack (Cleveland), and Lorie Logan (Dallas) all said “raise ’em.” The market is pricing in roughly a 55% chance the Fed bumps rates by a quarter point at the September meeting, with the other 45% betting on a hold. Either way, we’re likely done cutting for a while. If you’re floating an ARM or sitting on a variable-rate loan, now’s the time to lock in.

🏡 Marin County Real Estate Market

Let’s talk about your backyard. As of early August, we had 475 homes on the market across Marin County—median list price of $1.299 million, and the average home is sitting for 73 days before it sells. The big takeaway? Price appreciation has cooled considerably. We saw 11% year-over-year appreciation in June, but that dropped to just 3% in July. The market is no longer a runaway train—it’s normalizing.

Here’s what’s really going on: This isn’t a pure buyer’s market or seller’s market anymore. It’s property-specific. A well-priced, move-in-ready home in a good neighborhood still attracts solid interest. But homes with deferred maintenance, tricky floor plans, or high carrying costs are sitting longer and may need a price adjustment. Inventory remains the core constraint—lots of Marin homeowners locked into 2–3% mortgage rates from years past, so they’re not moving unless they absolutely have to.

🗺️ Marin City-by-City Snapshot

Tiburon: Waterfront premium still commanding strong buyer interest. Days-on-market holding steady around 65–70 days.

Belvedere: Small, tight inventory. When something hits the market here, it moves fast.

Mill Valley: Continued strong demand from families seeking schools and walkability. Mid-list-price homes seeing tighter margins on negotiations.

Sausalito: Artsy community maintaining appeal; some houseboat inventory challenges remain.

Corte Madera: Suburban appeal with retail and schools—moderate velocity, realistic pricing emerging.

Larkspur: Small, charming, inventory-constrained. Homes priced right move fast.

Kentfield: Larger lots, equestrian appeal—drawing families willing to move north for space.

Greenbrae: Quiet, established—steady interest from empty-nesters and downsizers.

San Rafael: Largest Marin city; diverse inventory and price points. Condo market showing signs of reset.

San Anselmo: Walkable downtown, wine-country feel—consistently strong appeal for second-home and primary buyers.

Fairfax: Small and charming; realistic pricing attracting first-time buyers and families.

Ross: Exclusive, hillside, limited supply. Pricing remains premium; limited turnover.

Novato: North Marin’s largest city—affordability relative to south county; solid inventory and diverse neighborhoods.

Marinwood / Terra Linda: San Rafael’s suburban extension—steady demand, younger family demographic.

Strawberry: Small, tucked under Mount Tamalpais—limited inventory, strong local pride.

Stinson Beach / Bolinas: Coastal fire-zone communities requiring specialty lending; insurance costs remain a real hurdle for potential buyers.

Point Reyes / Inverness / Nicasio: Rural west Marin—character and land attract specific buyers; specialty lending often needed. Few homes on market at any given time.

💡 What Should Marin Buyers Do Right Now?

• Get pre-approved now. With rates stable and the market no longer a sprint, a solid pre-approval letter gives you credibility and speed when the right home appears. It takes the guesswork out of your budget.
• Look at inventory in your price range. Days-on-market are creeping up, which means there’s less urgency to waive inspections or offer above asking. You have slightly more negotiating room than you did six months ago. Use it wisely.
• Lock in your rate if you’re serious. Mortgage rates in the mid-6s are workable. If the Fed hikes in September, we could see 6.8%–7.0% by fall. That’s a real difference on your payment. If you’re buying, don’t sit on the fence.
• Think long-term, not short-term. Marin’s real estate is fundamentally strong—schools, lifestyle, geography. Don’t get caught up in monthly gyrations. Buy what works for your life, and stop timing the market.

📞 Talk to Michael Directly

Got questions about what this means for your move, your refi, or your current mortgage? I’m here to talk—no nonsense, no call centers, no runaround.

Call: (800) 239-1103 | Cell: (310) 849-9124

Michael G. DiVita, Broker of Record | CA DRE #01372066 | NMLS #241655
DiVita Home Finance, Inc. | CA DRE #01818285 | NMLS #323700