Marin County Mortgage & Market Update — Monday, August 17, 2026

Good morning, Marin. The market’s been a bit jumpy this week—geopolitical tensions, Treasury yields climbing, and mortgage rates hovering in that 6.6% range. If you’re thinking about buying or refinancing, now’s the time to tune out the noise and focus on what’s actually happening in your market. Let’s dig into today’s numbers.

📈 Market Close — Monday, August 17, 2026

Stocks were down across the board today as oil prices and Treasury yields spiked on renewed concerns about US-Iran tensions. It’s one of those days where global headlines trump earnings reports—and honestly, it’s a good reminder that mortgage rates are tied to a lot more than just the Fed’s rate decisions.

🏦 Bond Yields & Mortgage Rates

The 10-year is easing slightly (down 0.01% from yesterday), but 30-year fixed rates are holding firm in the 6.54% to 6.69% range depending on your lender and credit profile. The gap between Treasury yields and mortgage rates reflects what lenders are pricing in for risk and duration. Bottom line: rates remain elevated compared to last year, but they’re stable—no surprises here.

📊 Inflation & The Fed

The most recent inflation data comes from July: CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month (seasonally adjusted) and 3.4% year-over-year. Core inflation—which strips out food and energy—rose 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually. Neither number is screaming crisis, but it’s also not headed back toward the Fed’s 2% target fast.

At the Fed’s July 28–29 meeting, policymakers held the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. Here’s the kicker: three FOMC members dissented, wanting to hike rates now. That signals potential rate increases down the road—maybe as soon as September’s meeting on the 15th. For mortgage shoppers, that’s important: higher Fed rates don’t automatically mean higher mortgage rates, but a hiking cycle typically does pressure the mortgage market. The consensus from forecasters is that we’ll see 6.4–6.5% mortgage rates through the rest of 2026.

🏡 Marin County Real Estate Market

Here’s where it gets interesting for you locals. As of early August, Marin County had 475 listed properties on the market—down 13.32% month-over-month. That tightening supply is real. The median list price is holding at $1,299,000, with homes averaging 73 days on market. The typical home value across Marin is around $1,449,224, though countywide values are down 7% year-over-year. It’s a slower market than we saw in 2022–23, but it’s not a crash—it’s stabilizing.

The inventory crunch we’re seeing is partly psychological: a lot of Marin homeowners locked in sub-3% rates during the pandemic. Why sell and refinance at 6.63%? That’s why inventory remains the story. For sellers, less competition is a plus. For buyers, less choice means more patience and careful due diligence when you do find something.

🗺️ Marin City-by-City Snapshot

Tiburon — Waterfront premium holding steady; low inventory keeps prices anchored near historical highs. Belvedere — Similar story to Tiburon; postage-stamp lot sizes and water views command the premium. Mill Valley — Marin’s most active market; still seeing steady sales but taking longer to close. Sausalito — Eclectic mix of houseboats, hillside homes, and Victorian charm; niche appeal keeps it stable. Corte Madera — Suburban convenience attracting young families; solid demand. Larkspur — Downtown revival and waterfront projects drawing interest; emerging pocket. Kentfield — Upscale residential; estates in the 2M+ range seeing selective interest. Greenbrae — Family-friendly; mid-market sweet spot with steady traffic. San Rafael — County seat with downtown life; robust market diversity. San Anselmo — Quirky and artistic; younger demographic keeping it energized. Fairfax — Small-town charm on the rise; attracting renovators and families. Ross — Exclusive; limited inventory, limited sales, but rock-solid values. Novato — North County anchor; solid value for commuters and families. Marinwood / Terra Linda — Affordable entry point for first-time buyers; competitive due to price point. Strawberry — East Bay commute alternative; emerging demand from remote workers. Stinson Beach / Bolinas — Fire-zone properties requiring specialty lending; limited but persistent buyer base. Point Reyes / Inverness / Nicasio — Rural west Marin; ranch properties and ag land; specialty lending for most deals.

💡 What Should Marin Buyers Do Right Now?

1. Get pre-approved now, not later. With 6.63% rates and potential Fed hikes ahead, locking in a pre-approval gives you negotiating power and clarity on your budget. Plus, if rates dip, you’ve already done the homework.

2. Focus on properties that fit, not on timing the market. No one can predict when rates will drop or when inventory will flood back. Buy when you find the right home at the right price, not when you think rates are “about to fall.”

3. Consider less-competitive neighborhoods or price points. With inventory tight across Marin, homes in the $1.2M–$1.5M range are moving slower than the sub-$1M or $2M+ tiers. That’s opportunity if your target is in that zone.

4. Refinancers—wait a beat. You locked in a good rate two years ago. Unless you’re dropping half a point or more, the costs and hassle probably aren’t worth it at today’s environment. The next Fed cycle might bring relief in 2027.

📞 Talk to Michael Directly

This is a snapshot of today—tomorrow brings new data, new headlines, new opportunities. If you’re serious about buying, selling, or refinancing in Marin, don’t navigate this alone. I’ve been in this business long enough to know when to move and when to wait. Give me a call. No pressure, no sales pitch—just a straight conversation about your next move.

Michael G. DiVita
Broker of Record | CA DRE #01372066 | NMLS #241655
DiVita Home Finance, Inc. | CA DRE #01818285 | NMLS #323700

📞 (800) 239-1103
📱 (310) 849-9124