Wednesday, August 26, 2026 — and the mortgage market this week is in a holding pattern that I’d describe as “tense calm.” Everyone’s waiting for Friday. That’s when Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh takes the stage at Jackson Hole for his first major policy speech since taking over. The bond market isn’t moving much right now because no one wants to be caught on the wrong side of whatever he says.
10-Year Treasury: Holding at 4.66%
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has been pinned in a tight range all week — opening Monday around 4.68%, dipping to 4.63% Tuesday, and settling back to roughly 4.66% this morning. That’s meaningful for you as a Marin County borrower because the 30-year mortgage rate moves in lockstep with the 10-year. Right now the spread between the 10-year and a conventional 30-year mortgage is running about 175–185 basis points, which puts conforming rates in the 6.40–6.55% range for well-qualified buyers, and jumbo pricing (which dominates in Marin) is actually tighter — closer to 6.25–6.40% for strong files through our wholesale lenders.
That spread between Treasuries and mortgage rates had been running as wide as 250+ bps during the 2023–2024 volatility. The fact that it’s compressed to under 185 bps tells me lenders are competing harder for loan volume. That’s a quiet win for borrowers.
Bond Market: Treasury Buybacks Are Real and They Matter
Something that hasn’t gotten enough mainstream coverage: the U.S. Treasury has quietly doubled its bond buyback operations on longer-dated securities over the past few weeks. Buybacks reduce the supply of bonds in the market, which pushes prices up and yields down. It’s a technical support mechanism, and it’s one of the reasons the 10-year yield hasn’t blown out toward 5% despite the deficit numbers.
I’m not going to pretend this is a guarantee of lower rates. But it does mean there’s a structural buyer in the market supporting long-duration bonds. If Warsh signals Friday that the Fed is comfortable with current policy and isn’t looking to hike, you could see the 10-year pull back toward 4.50% — which would be meaningful for mortgage rates. A 15–20 bps drop in the 10-year flows directly into borrower pricing.
Equities: S&P 500 Consolidating After Strong Run
The S&P 500 is essentially flat on the week — up maybe 0.3% from Monday’s open, hovering just below recent all-time highs. Tech is steady, financials are slightly positive (bank stocks like it when the yield curve steepens, which it has been doing gradually). No big selloff, no breakout — just consolidation while everyone waits on Warsh.
For the real estate market, a healthy equity market matters. Marin County buyers are disproportionately funded by stock options, RSUs, and concentrated tech positions. When the market is up, buyers feel flush. When it’s down, we see deals blow up at the last minute because a borrower’s asset verification comes in lower than expected. Right now the equity market is supportive of transaction volume.
Jackson Hole Friday: What Warsh Actually Needs to Say
Kevin Warsh is a different animal than Jerome Powell. He’s been more hawkish historically, more focused on price stability, and less willing to telegraph moves far in advance. That’s actually fine — the market has had 18 months to digest the post-Powell transition and knows what Warsh is about.
What the bond market needs to hear Friday is simple: no new hikes, and some acknowledgment that the disinflationary trend is intact. That’s it. If Warsh says those two things in any form, expect a Treasury rally and mortgage rate relief heading into September. If he sounds hawkish — if he signals the door to rate hikes isn’t fully closed — expect yields to spike back toward 4.80%+ and mortgage rates to follow.
My read: he’ll be cautious but not alarming. The jobs data has been softer, PCE inflation is running near target, and there’s no political upside to rattling the market right now. I’m cautiously optimistic about Friday.
What This Means for Marin County Buyers and Sellers Right Now
Inventory in Marin remains tight. We’re seeing active listings in the 350–400 range countywide, which is low historically. The properties that are priced correctly — meaning priced for today’s market, not last year’s peak — are moving in under three weeks. The ones that are sitting are overpriced by $200K–$400K and sellers haven’t accepted that yet.
For buyers: if you’re pre-approved and sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates to come down dramatically before jumping in, I’d challenge that thinking. Rates at 6.25–6.40% on a jumbo loan for a $2M Marin home translate to a principal and interest payment around $12,400–$12,700/month on 20% down. If rates drop to 5.75% — which would require a significant shift — that payment falls to roughly $11,700/month. That $700/month difference is real, but so is the risk that a rate dip brings 40 more buyers back into competition on the same house you want. I’ve watched that movie before.
For sellers: buyers right now are sophisticated and rate-sensitive. They’re doing the math. Price your home with that in mind and you’ll sell faster than anyone else on the block.
Today’s Rate Snapshot (August 26, 2026)
- 30-Year Conventional (conforming): 6.40–6.55%
- 30-Year Jumbo: 6.25–6.40% (strong credit/reserves)
- 15-Year Conventional: 5.85–6.00%
- 7/1 ARM Jumbo: 5.75–5.90%
- FHA 30-Year: 6.25–6.40%
- VA 30-Year: 5.90–6.10%
Rates are subject to change and depend on your credit score, down payment, property type, and reserves. Call me for a precise quote on your specific scenario: (800) 239-1103.
Michael DiVita is a licensed California mortgage broker based in Tiburon with 20 years of experience serving Marin County buyers and sellers. DiVita Home Finance, Inc. — CA DRE #01818285 | NMLS #323700.
