Marin County Mortgage & Market Update — Monday, September 14, 2026

Good morning from Tiburon. Monday handed us a historically significant data point: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly crossed 5.014%, its highest level since October 2023, before pulling back slightly to close around 4.987%. That number matters because 5% on the 10-year is psychological resistance — it’s the level that caused a mini-meltdown in bond markets three years ago, and bond traders were watching it closely all day.

The bigger story, though, is what didn’t happen: stocks didn’t panic. Equities actually closed higher, with the S&P up nearly 1% on the session. The market appears to be making a bet that the Fed hike expected Wednesday is the last one of this cycle — and if that read is right, rates are close to their peak.

📈 Markets at the Close — Monday, September 14, 2026

🏦 Bond Market & Mortgage Rates — September 14, 2026

The 30-year fixed at 6.88% is the highest average rate we’ve seen in over a year. Some lenders were quoting 7%+ on conforming loans last Thursday and Friday; Monday’s slight yield pullback from the 5% threshold brought those quotes back down marginally for well-qualified borrowers.

The 5% Threshold and What It Actually Means

The 10-year briefly hitting 5% isn’t just a round number story. The last time we were here — October and November 2023 — the housing market nearly froze. Purchase applications hit multi-decade lows. Sellers who didn’t have to sell pulled listings.

What’s different this time is inventory. Marin has about 486 active listings right now, up 24% year over year. That’s the most selection buyers have had since early 2023. So even at 6.88%, there are motivated sellers in this market who weren’t there when rates spiked three years ago.

I also want to be careful not to overstate what the 5% print means for mortgage rates. The relationship between the 10-year and the 30-year fixed isn’t fixed — it varies with the mortgage spread, which has been running unusually wide (around 260–280 basis points vs. a historical norm closer to 170). If that spread compresses back toward normal over the next 6–12 months, mortgage rates could fall meaningfully even if the 10-year stays elevated. That’s actually one of the more underappreciated tailwinds for housing affordability heading into 2027.

Fed Meeting Starts Tomorrow

The FOMC convenes Tuesday and Wednesday this week, with the rate decision and press conference Wednesday at 2pm ET. Futures are pricing roughly 70% odds of a 25-basis-point hike, taking the fed funds rate to 5.75%.

I said in Friday’s update what I still believe: they hike. The August CPI was in-line but not falling fast enough, oil is still above $100, and the Fed can’t walk away from a 70% market consensus without signaling something has broken. Nothing has broken.

What I’ll be watching Wednesday is not the rate decision itself — it’s the dot plot and the press conference language. Specifically: does the statement include language about “additional firming may be appropriate,” or does it soften to “will take into account cumulative tightening”? That latter phrasing is how the Fed signals it’s done hiking. If Powell uses it Wednesday afternoon, yields will drop and mortgage rates will follow within 48 hours.

🏡 Marin County Housing Market Snapshot

• Median sold price: ~$1.395M (up ~2% year over year)
• Active listings: ~486 (up 24% YoY — most since early 2023)
• Months of supply: ~3.2
• Average days on market: ~49 days
• Price per square foot: ~$770

The market is behaving rationally. Sellers who price correctly are still getting their number. The bidding wars are confined to genuinely special properties — waterfront, view, something structurally unique. Everything else is sitting 4–6 weeks before going into contract.

For buyers, that’s actually a healthy dynamic. You have time to get your financing right, do your due diligence, and not make decisions under artificial pressure. I’d rather help a buyer close a property they actually want than win a war on something they settled for.

What I’m Telling Buyers This Week

If you’re in contract, know your lock expiration date. If you locked 45 days ago, you may be within 2 weeks of needing an extension. Call your lender today — Monday — before the Fed meeting changes the pricing environment on Wednesday.

If you’re pre-approved and shopping, talk to me before Wednesday. We can discuss float-down options, longer initial locks, and rate structures that protect you regardless of which way Powell leans at the press conference. There are tools available right now that didn’t exist in 2023 because lenders are competing harder for purchase business.

If you’re thinking about refinancing — not yet. The bet right now is that rates are near their peak. Locking a refi at 6.88% when there’s a reasonable chance rates look meaningfully different in Q1 or Q2 of next year is not the move. I’ll update this view after we see Wednesday’s decision and language.

I’ll have the full post-Fed read in Wednesday’s update. Questions before then — call or text.

Michael DiVita — Mortgage Broker, Tiburon CA
DRE #01372066 | NMLS #241655
DiVita Home Finance, Inc. — DRE #01818285 | NMLS #323700
📞 (800) 239-1103 | Text: (310) 849-9124