Good morning from Tiburon. Thursday handed Marin buyers a number they haven’t seen in over a year: the 30-year fixed mortgage rate crossed 7% — briefly touching 7.07% according to Mortgage News Daily. If you’ve been watching rates waiting for a dip, this is a good moment to understand what’s driving it and whether it’s temporary.
What Happened Thursday
Three things collided at once:
Oil above $108. Brent crude surged more than 6% and briefly traded above $108 per barrel — the highest since early 2024 — driven by the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict and disruption to Middle East energy supply lines. Energy inflation directly pressures the broader CPI, which comes out Friday morning (August CPI). Bond traders front-ran that number hard.
The 10-year Treasury jumped to 4.95%. That’s a 12+ basis-point move in less than a week. Mortgage rates track the 10-year closely — when it moves this fast, lenders widen their spreads to reduce risk, which means the actual rate on your loan moves even more than the Treasury move alone would suggest.
August PPI came in hot at +0.4%. Producer prices measure wholesale inflation — what businesses pay before they pass it on to consumers. The +0.4% reading matched expectations, but after oil’s surge, it was enough to push Fed hike odds to 70% for next week’s FOMC meeting, up from 62% the day before.
What This Means for the Fed
Markets are now pricing a 70% probability of a rate hike at the September 16–17 FOMC meeting. A hike wouldn’t directly move 30-year mortgage rates — those are priced off the 10-year Treasury, not the Fed funds rate — but it signals the Fed is still fighting inflation, which keeps long-term yields elevated.
The honest read: rates in the 7–7.25% range are now the baseline scenario through the end of September unless CPI Friday surprises to the downside.
What It Means for Marin Buyers Right Now
Marin County’s median home price held near $1.395M as of August. At 7.07%, a $1.116M loan (20% down on a $1.395M purchase) carries a monthly principal and interest payment of approximately $7,450. At 6.73% — where rates were Monday — that same loan was about $7,225. That’s $225/month more, or $2,700/year, from a rate move that happened in 72 hours.
What buyers should know: Marin inventory is up 24% year-over-year, which means there’s more room to negotiate price. In a rate spike like this, sellers who were holding firm sometimes become more flexible — especially on properties that have been sitting 30+ days. The math of a price reduction and a rate buydown together can more than offset a 0.3% rate move.
If you’ve been pre-approved at a rate from two weeks ago, call your lender today. Locks expire and pre-approvals are based on rate assumptions that may no longer be accurate.
The Week’s Rate Trajectory
- Mon Sep 7: 30-yr fixed ~6.71% (Labor Day, markets closed)
- Tue Sep 8: 6.73–6.78% (oil climbs, yields rise)
- Wed Sep 9: 6.73–6.78% (Brent near $100, 10-yr at 4.83%)
- Thu Sep 10: 7.07% — rates cross 7% for first time since May 2025
What I’m Watching Friday
August CPI drops tomorrow morning. If it comes in above the 2.6% consensus estimate, expect another leg up in yields and rates could push toward 7.15–7.25%. If it surprises to the downside — below 2.4% — bond markets will rally and rates could pull back 15–20 basis points quickly. Friday’s number matters more than usual right now.
I’ll have the full read in tomorrow’s update.
Michael DiVita — Mortgage Broker, Tiburon CA
DRE #01372066 | NMLS #241655
DiVita Home Finance, Inc. — DRE #01818285 | NMLS #323700
📞 (800) 239-1103 | Text: (310) 849-9124
Questions about your rate lock or pre-approval? Call or text anytime — this market moves fast and so do I.
