Marin County Mortgage & Market Update — Friday, September 11, 2026

Good morning from Tiburon. August CPI landed this morning right about where Wall Street expected, and stocks liked it — but bonds are a different story. The 10-year Treasury touched a fresh 52-week high today and 30-year mortgage rates are now the highest they’ve been since May of 2025. Here’s what it actually means if you’re buying or refinancing in Marin.

📈 Market Close — Friday, September 11, 2026

Quick note on timing: this brief goes out before the closing bell, so the numbers below are late-session levels as of roughly 1:20 p.m. Eastern. All three major indexes were solidly green.

Two things drove the bounce. First, the CPI report came in on forecast instead of hot — after Thursday’s ugly producer price number, “as expected” counted as good news. Second, oil finally backed off. Brent slid more than 3% to around $104 a barrel and WTI dropped to roughly $99 after four straight sessions of pain. Stocks had fallen four days in a row heading into today, so some of this is just relief buying.

🏦 Bond Yields & Mortgage Rates

You’re going to see two very different mortgage rate numbers in the headlines today, and I want to explain the gap before someone calls me confused. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey says 6.76%. The daily lender index says 7.08%. Both are accurate — they’re just measuring different things. Freddie’s number averages the prior business week and doesn’t account for discount points, so it lags reality by several days. The daily index is priced as of this morning and adjusts for points. When rates are moving fast, which they are right now, trust the daily number.

The move has been sharp: the 30-year went from 6.89% to 6.97% to 7.07% over three sessions. That’s the highest since May 2025. The culprit isn’t really CPI — it’s fuel prices and Thursday’s producer price index, which ran 0.4% for the month and 5.4% year over year. Wholesale inflation at 5.4% is what’s pushing money out of bonds, and mortgage rates follow the bond market, not the Fed’s press releases.

📊 Inflation & The Fed

August CPI rose 0.4% for the month, putting the annual rate at 3.4% — both in line with consensus. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% (a tenth hotter than forecast) with the annual core rate at 2.4%, right on expectations.

So no upside surprise. But 3.4% is still well north of the Fed’s 2% target, and the market read the report as confirmation that the Fed’s hands are tied. Following the release, CME FedWatch odds of a quarter-point hike at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting jumped to roughly 86%, up from the mid-50s earlier this month. Chair Warsh has been openly hawkish, and a few strategists are now talking about more than one hike before year end.

Here’s the part people get wrong. The Fed hiking its overnight rate does not mechanically raise your 30-year mortgage rate — those are set by mortgage-backed securities pricing, which tracks the 10-year Treasury. A hike that the market already expects is largely priced in. What would actually push mortgage rates higher from here is oil staying above $100 and inflation expectations drifting up. That’s the number I’m watching, not the Fed funds rate.

🏡 Marin County Real Estate Market

Marin’s median sold price is running around $1.395 million, up roughly 2% year over year. Zillow’s broader home-value index for the county sits near $1.50 million, up about 3.8% annually. Prices are holding — the story is in the inventory and the timelines.

Active listings are around 486, nearly 24% above a year ago, with about 3.2 months of supply. That’s the deepest selection Marin buyers have had since early 2023. Days on market is averaging roughly 35, basically flat versus last year — but that county average hides the real dynamic. Homes that sell in the first 30 days are still closing near 105% of original ask. Homes that sit past 120 days are closing around 84%. It’s two completely different markets depending on whether a listing caught its buyer early.

What that means practically: sharp, well-priced listings still get bid up. Everything else is negotiable in a way it hasn’t been in years. That’s not a buyer’s market — Marin doesn’t really do those — but a prepared buyer with a real pre-approval has leverage right now, especially on anything that’s been sitting.

🗺️ Marin City-by-City Snapshot

• Tiburon — Waterfront and view properties are almost entirely jumbo territory at 7.25%, so buyers here are running ARM comparisons harder than they have in a year.
• Belvedere — Thin inventory as always; the handful of active listings are drawing serious, mostly cash-flexible buyers who aren’t especially rate-sensitive.
• Mill Valley — The busiest market in the county right now, and the clearest example of the 30-day split — fresh listings move, stale ones cut.
• Sausalito — Condos and houseboats need lenders who actually understand the collateral; plenty of big banks still decline these on sight.
• Corte Madera — Solid mid-market demand; a good share of purchases here fit under Marin’s $1,249,125 high-balance conforming ceiling, which prices better than jumbo.
• Larkspur — Steady. Downtown and Baltimore Canyon listings still see multiple offers when priced right.
• Kentfield — School-district demand keeps a floor under prices even as rates climb; largely jumbo financing.
• Greenbrae — Bon Air corridor moving well; a practical option for buyers priced out of Kentfield.
• San Rafael — Highest listing count in the county and the best negotiating room, particularly on anything past 60 days.
• San Anselmo — Charming older housing stock; plan for appraisal and insurance scrutiny on the pre-1940 homes.
• Fairfax — Marin’s relative value play, though wildfire-adjacent parcels are seeing tighter hazard insurance underwriting.
• Ross — Very few transactions, very high price points; essentially all jumbo and portfolio lending.
• Novato — The most rate-sensitive market in Marin, and the one where this week’s jump to 7% will show up fastest in offer activity.
• Marinwood / Terra Linda — Steady family demand; many purchases land right in high-balance conforming range.
• Strawberry — Condo and townhome financing here hinges on HOA approval, so I pull project docs before we write.
• Stinson Beach / Bolinas — Fire zone and coastal exposure. Specialty lending — most conventional lenders won’t touch these, and insurance has to be solved before underwriting.
• Point Reyes / Inverness / Nicasio — Rural West Marin with acreage, wells, septic, and outbuildings. Specialty and portfolio lending territory; appraisals take longer, so build the timeline in.

💡 What Should Marin Buyers Do Right Now?

1. Price the ARM, don’t just assume the 30-year. At 7.08% fixed versus 6.64% on a 7/6 ARM, that spread is 44 basis points. On a $1.5 million loan that’s real money every month. If your realistic horizon in the house is seven years or less, at least run the comparison.
2. Look hard at loan structure around $1,249,125. That’s Marin’s high-balance conforming ceiling for a 1-unit property. Structuring to land at or under it — larger down payment, or a conforming first with a second — often beats a single jumbo at 7.25%. Worth modeling before you commit.
3. Get pre-approved before you shop, not after you fall in love. With 3.2 months of supply and sellers getting realistic, the buyer who can actually perform has leverage. A verified pre-approval is what converts that leverage into a lower price.
4. Don’t try to time Wednesday’s Fed meeting. An 86% probability hike is already in the bond market. Lock based on your closing date and your own risk tolerance, not a guess about the FOMC. And if you’re in West Marin or a fire zone, start the insurance conversation now — that’s what delays closings out here, not the rate.

📞 Talk to Michael Directly

We’re a small family-owned brokerage in Tiburon. No call center, no queue, no getting handed off to someone in another state who’s never heard of Nicasio. You call, I answer, and we look at your actual numbers together.

Call: (800) 239-1103 | Cell: (310) 849-9124
Michael G. DiVita, Broker of Record | CA DRE #01372066 | NMLS #241655
DiVita Home Finance, Inc. | CA DRE #01818285 | NMLS #323700

Rates and market data referenced above are as of Friday, September 11, 2026 and change daily. Nothing here is a rate quote or a commitment to lend. Equal Housing Opportunity.