Marin County Mortgage & Market Update — Thursday, September 3, 2026

Good morning from Tiburon. Bonds finally caught a break this week, and that’s the story that matters most if you’re shopping for a house in Marin right now. Here’s where things stand Thursday, September 3, 2026 — and what it actually means for your loan.

📈 Market Close — September 3, 2026

Stocks put together back-to-back gains, with Wednesday’s session the strongest for the Dow since early August. Here’s the most recent full close:

Thursday’s session has been building on that, with equities higher again and Treasury yields drifting lower. Broadcom is the notable laggard — beat on earnings and sold off anyway, which tells you how much is already priced into this market. But honestly, for mortgage purposes the stock tape is background noise. The bond market is what writes your rate.

🏦 Bond Yields & Mortgage Rates

A little context on that spread of numbers, because clients ask me about it constantly. Freddie Mac’s 6.71% is a weekly average that’s already a few days stale by the time you read it. The daily trackers — Optimal Blue had 6.78%, Zillow’s marketplace showed 6.69% — move faster. None of them is your rate. Your rate depends on credit score, down payment, loan size, occupancy, and whether we’re doing conforming, high-balance, or jumbo. In most of Marin we’re in jumbo territory, and jumbo pricing has its own personality that doesn’t always track the headlines.

The bigger picture: the 10-year ran up to multi-year highs in late August, and this week’s pullback is a breather, not a trend change yet. Adjustable-rate products have actually been getting more expensive while fixed rates eased slightly — an unusual combination that’s worth a conversation if you were leaning toward an ARM to buy down the payment.

📊 Inflation & The Fed

The July CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year headline, up just 0.1% for the month, with core at 2.5%. Shelter is still doing most of the heavy lifting on the monthly number. The Fed’s preferred gauge, core PCE, is running hotter at 3.7% — and that gap is exactly why this has been such a frustrating year for anyone waiting on cheaper money.

Here’s the honest read on the Fed. The funds rate is sitting at 3.50%–3.75%. Chair Warsh has been openly hawkish, and the June dot plot showed a hiking bias among committee members — a full reversal from where the market started this year expecting cuts. But Governor Waller said this week he’d be “inclined to support” holding steady in September barring an inflation surprise, and that single comment is a big reason yields backed off. The committee meets September 15–16.

Two data points stand between here and that meeting: Friday’s jobs report, and the August CPI on September 11. If both come in soft, we could see mortgage rates test the low 6s. If either runs hot, the hike conversation comes right back and 7% is on the table. I’m not going to pretend I know which way it breaks — anyone who tells you they do is selling something.

🏡 Marin County Real Estate Market

August numbers for Marin County are in, and they describe a market that has quietly shifted toward buyers without anyone announcing it:

• Median sold price: $1.395 million, up about 2% year-over-year
• Active listings: 486 homes, up nearly 24% from a year ago
• Months of inventory: 3.2 — the highest reading since early 2023
• Days on market: averaging 50 days
• Zillow’s Marin home value index: $1,495,814, up 3.8% year-over-year

Prices are still inching up, but supply is up nearly a quarter and homes are taking seven weeks to move. That’s leverage buyers haven’t had in Marin in three years. Quality homes in prime locations still get bid up — that never really stops here — but the marginal listing is sitting, and sellers know it. Credits, rate buydowns, and repair concessions are all back in the negotiating vocabulary.

🗺️ Marin City-by-City Snapshot

• Tiburon — Waterfront and view properties still command a premium, but off-water listings are negotiating; almost everything here is a jumbo loan.
• Belvedere — Thin inventory as always, high-balance jumbo financing, and buyers who need a lender who can actually move fast.
• Mill Valley — The busiest submarket in the county right now; more choices for buyers than we’ve seen in a while.
• Sausalito — Condos and houseboats need lender-specific expertise; not every bank will touch a floating home.
• Corte Madera — Solid family-buyer demand; well-priced homes still move inside 30 days.
• Larkspur — Downtown and Greenbrae-adjacent properties holding value; ferry access keeps commuter demand steady.
• Kentfield — Schools keep a floor under prices; expect jumbo and often super-jumbo loan sizes.
• Greenbrae — Steady, less volatile than the luxury tiers; a good spot for buyers stretching into Marin.
• San Rafael — The county’s inventory engine; the widest range of price points and the most conforming-loan opportunity.
• San Anselmo — Charming older housing stock; appraisals and condition reports matter more here than most places.
• Fairfax — Relative value play for Marin; smaller loan sizes often mean better rate pricing.
• Ross — Very few transactions, very large loans; private and portfolio lending is often the right answer.
• Novato — The most conforming-loan-friendly city in Marin, and where first-time buyers have the best shot.
• Marinwood / Terra Linda — Mid-century inventory with real value; strong demand from move-up buyers priced out of southern Marin.
• Strawberry — Condos and townhomes here need careful HOA review; warrantability can make or break the loan.
• Stinson Beach / Bolinas — Fire-zone and coastal properties; insurance is the gating item, and specialty lending is usually required.
• Point Reyes / Inverness / Nicasio — Rural West Marin with acreage, wells, and septic; these need a lender comfortable with non-standard properties and specialty financing.

💡 What Should Marin Buyers Do Right Now?

1. Use the inventory, not the rate, as your edge. 3.2 months of supply and 50 days on market is the best negotiating position Marin buyers have had since 2023. A seller credit toward a rate buydown can cut your payment more than waiting six months for the Fed ever will.
2. Get fully underwritten before Friday’s jobs report. Not pre-qualified — underwritten. If soft data drops rates next week, the buyers who close are the ones whose files are already clean.
3. Think hard before locking long. With the Fed on hold looking likely and two major data prints ahead, a shorter lock with a float-down option may serve you better than a 60-day lock at today’s pricing. Depends on your escrow timeline — let’s run it.
4. Price the insurance before you price the loan. In West Marin, Stinson, Bolinas, and any wildland-interface property, the insurance quote can change your qualifying number more than a quarter-point of rate. Get that number early.

📞 Talk to Michael Directly

We’re a small family-owned brokerage in Tiburon. No call center, no lead handoff, no runaround — when you call, you get me. If you want to know what today’s numbers actually mean for your purchase or refinance, let’s talk it through.

Call: (800) 239-1103
Cell: (310) 849-9124

Michael G. DiVita, Broker of Record | CA DRE #01372066 | NMLS #241655
DiVita Home Finance, Inc. | CA DRE #01818285 | NMLS #323700

Rates and market data shown are as of September 3, 2026 and are subject to change without notice. Figures cited are market averages and are not an offer or commitment to lend. Your actual rate depends on credit, loan amount, property type, occupancy, and other factors.