Monday, August 31, 2026 | Market Close Briefing from Michael DiVita · DiVita Home Finance, Tiburon CA
📈 Market Close
Stocks slipped Monday to cap off what was still a winning August, with surging oil prices and Iran-related geopolitical jitters weighing on sentiment in the final session of the month.
- S&P 500: 7,686 ▼ 0.33% — down on the day, but still up ~2.5% for August
- Dow Jones: 53,186 ▼ 0.70% — closed August with roughly 1% monthly gain
- Nasdaq: 26,371 ▼ 0.12% — tech held up relatively well despite the selloff
Energy stocks led the market lower as oil prices jumped sharply on news of escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. Despite today’s pullback, the broader market ended August in positive territory across all three major indexes.
🏦 Bond Yields & Mortgage Rates
- 10-Year Treasury: 4.72% — holding near yearly highs after last week’s Warsh speech
- 30-Year Fixed Mortgage: 6.81% — near 52-week highs
- 15-Year Fixed: 6.35%
Mortgage rates enter September at elevated levels. The 10-year Treasury — which drives 30-year mortgage pricing — has stayed stubbornly above 4.70% as the market prices in a growing likelihood of another Fed rate hike this fall.
🏛️ Fed Watch
The big story this week remains Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Friday speech at Jackson Hole, where he warned that inflation progress has been “insufficient” and signaled the Fed won’t hesitate to hike again. Markets are now pricing a 57% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September meeting (CME FedWatch), up sharply from ~40% a week ago.
At its July meeting, the FOMC voted 9-3 to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75% — with three dissenting members already voting for a hike. September is now a genuine coin flip, and the mortgage market is pricing that uncertainty in.
What this means for buyers: If the Fed hikes in September, mortgage rates could push closer to 7.0–7.25%. Locking in now — at 6.81% — may prove to be the right call. Call me at (800) 239-1103 to discuss your options.
🏡 Marin County Real Estate
Marin’s market remains resilient despite elevated rates. The average home value now sits at $1,495,814, up 3.8% year-over-year. That said, appreciation has cooled significantly from the 11% pace seen in June — July came in at just 3%, suggesting the market is finding a new normal.
Inventory is still the defining challenge: active listings are down 41% year-over-year. Despite that, closed sales fell only 12% — meaning serious buyers are still transacting, just with less to choose from.
Town-level snapshot (Spring/Summer 2026):
- Mill Valley: Median $2.55M · 109.7% of list price · 85% of homes close within 30 days
- Novato: Median $1.37M · 101.42% of list price · 22 median days on market
Mill Valley continues to be Marin’s hottest sub-market, with most homes still selling above asking in under a month. Novato offers relative affordability for Marin — but at $1.37M, buyers there feel today’s 6.81% rates directly in their monthly payment.
💡 Mortgage Perspective
August closes with a clear message: rates are high, inventory is low, and September brings meaningful Fed uncertainty. For Marin buyers, the window to lock before a potential September hike is narrow. I’m here to help you move fast when the right home comes up.
📞 Michael DiVita · DiVita Home Finance · Tiburon, CA
(800) 239-1103 · Marin Mortgage Specialist
