Marin County Mortgage & Market Update — Monday, August 31, 2026

Good morning, Marin. Another Monday, another round of market noise—but today’s data tells us something real about where we stand on mortgage rates and the local housing market. Let’s break it down.

📈 Market Close — Monday, August 31, 2026

Geopolitical headlines weighed on equities today. Renewed tensions in the Middle East and fresh US-Iran military activity pushed oil prices higher, which spooked both stocks and bonds. Rising energy costs fuel inflation concerns—exactly what the Fed doesn’t want to see—which is already pushing rate-hike expectations higher.

🏦 Bond Yields & Mortgage Rates

Here’s the real story: mortgage rates are climbing again. The 30-year fixed is now consistently trading in the 6.50–6.74% range—and that’s the market average. Your own rate depends on your credit, down payment, and loan type, so shop around if you’re looking.

The higher Treasury yield (touching 4.75% for the first time since January) is being driven by oil prices and rising expectations that the Fed will raise rates sooner than previously thought. That’s the connection most people miss: oil shocks don’t just hit gas stations; they hit mortgage rates too, because they signal inflation risk.

📊 Inflation & The Fed

The Fed’s Take: Chair Kevin Warsh spoke this morning at the G20 conference and struck an upbeat tone. He dismissed “secular stagnation” and talked about a “new period of secular growth,” powered by AI investment and business optimism. It’s a rosier outlook than you might expect given oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty.

What It Means for Rates: The Fed’s current effective funds rate sits at 3.63%. Futures markets are pricing in a gradual rise to about 3.9% by November and 4.2% by August 2027. Translation: expect mortgage rates to stay elevated—and possibly drift higher—as the Fed manages the inflation-growth balance.

For buyers: if you’re on the fence about pulling the trigger, waiting for rates to drop feels increasingly risky. Rates could move lower if a recession takes hold, but that’s a big “if”—and Warsh isn’t warning about one.

🏡 Marin County Real Estate Market

The August 2026 Assessment Roll just came in, and it shows a market that’s cooling slightly but still healthy. Here are the facts:

• Average Home Value: $1,495,814 (up 3.8% year-over-year)
• Days to Pending: 18 days (fast, but not unreasonably so)
• Price Appreciation: Slowed to 3% in July (down from 11% in June)
• Assessment Roll Growth: Up 3.62% countywide, reflecting $4 billion in new assessed property value

What’s happening here is a recalibration, not a crash. The Bay Area’s torrid appreciation has hit a wall at higher interest rates—that’s expected and healthy. Marin’s property market is becoming increasingly specific: price, condition, location, and financing now matter more than they did six months ago. A well-kept home at fair value will still attract buyers. A home with deferred maintenance or an awkward floor plan at yesterday’s prices will sit.

The big constraint remains inventory. Many Marin homeowners are locked into 2-3% mortgage rates from 2020–2022. At today’s 6.68% rates, selling and refinancing feels economically painful, so homes stay off the market. That limited supply is actually helping prices stay relatively stable despite higher rates.

🗺️ Marin City-by-City Snapshot

Tiburon: Waterfront prices holding steady; inventory still tight.

Belvedere: Small, exclusive market; limited inventory keeps values supported.

Mill Valley: Strong buyer interest; homes in good condition pending within 2–3 weeks.

Sausalito: Eclectic market with some price resistance at higher rates; view properties still strong.

Corte Madera: Solid mid-county market; well-priced homes moving steadily.

Larkspur: Family-oriented; inventory picking up slightly as summer ends.

Kentfield: Elegant, stable; pricing discipline holding.

Greenbrae: Quiet, solid market; little churn but steady prices.

San Rafael: County’s largest city; diverse inventory and buyer pool; some homes still pending quickly.

San Anselmo: Popular with families; competitive for well-located homes.

Fairfax: Small-town charm; limited turnover.

Ross: Tiny, picturesque; ultra-low inventory but buyers know where to look.

Novato: North County anchor; more diverse price points than south Marin; active market.

Marinwood / Terra Linda: Strong neighborhood; good value relative to south Marin.

Strawberry: Residential neighborhood; limited sales velocity but stable prices.

Stinson Beach / Bolinas: Fire-zone properties require specialty lending and insurance expertise—don’t assume a standard loan will work.

Point Reyes / Inverness / Nicasio: Rural west Marin; specialty lending and septic/well considerations apply; gorgeous but unique challenges.

💡 What Should Marin Buyers Do Right Now?

1. Lock in your rate soon, if you’re ready. Mortgage rates are in the 6.5–6.7% range, and futures suggest they could drift toward 4.2% by next summer—but that’s contingent on a recession or dramatic Fed pivot. Don’t bet the house on it. If you qualify and love a home, rate lock now beats hoping.

2. Get pre-approved with a real lender (not just a pre-qual letter). In today’s market, sellers notice the difference. A full pre-approval from someone like me—not a robot letter—gives you credibility in a bidding war.

3. Focus on condition and location. Marin’s market is now about specifics. Don’t overpay for a fixer in a so-so neighborhood when a move-in-ready home on a better lot might be available at the same price. The days of “it’ll appreciate no matter what” are over.

4. Understand your own situation. If you have a rental property or a second home, talk to a tax advisor and a real lender—not just a broker—about financing. Jumbo loans, non-owner-occupied properties, and self-employed income all have different rules and rates. Get specifics, not generalizations.

📞 Talk to Michael Directly

Questions about your situation, your rate, or what’s really happening in the Marin market? Reach out. I’m here, not a call center, and I know Marin because I live here.

Call: (800) 239-1103 | Cell: (310) 849-9124

Michael G. DiVita, Broker of Record
CA DRE #01372066 | NMLS #241655

DiVita Home Finance, Inc.
CA DRE #01818285 | NMLS #323700